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Present day currencies
are usually fiat currencies with insignificant inherent value. The
value of currency is determined by the interplay of money supply
and money demand. As some countries hold floating exchange rates,
others maintain fixed exchange rate policy against the United States
dollar or other major currencies. These fixed rates are usually
maintained by a combination of legally enforced capital controls
or through government trading of foreign currency reserves to manipulate
the money supply. Under fixed exchange rates, persistent capital
outflows or trade deficits may lead countries to lower or abandon
their fixed rate policy, resulting in devaluation. However, that
a devaluation would reduce trade deficits depends on fulfilling
the Marshall-Lerner Condition: the sum of exports and imports elasticity’s
must be greater than 1.
In an open market, the perception
that a devaluation is imminent may lead speculators to sell the
currency in exchange for the country's foreign reserves, increasing
pressure on the issuing country to make an actual devaluation. When
speculators buy out all of the foreign reserves, a balance of payments
crisis occurs. Economists Paul Kurgan and Maurice Ousted present
a theoretical model in which they state that the balance of payments
crisis occurs when the real exchange rate exchange rate adjusted
for relative price differences between countries is equal to the
nominal exchange rate Kurgan, Paul and Maurice Ousted. International
Economics (2000), in practice, the onset of crisis has typically
occurred after the real exchange rate has depreciated below the
nominal rate. The reason for this is that speculators do not have
perfect information; they sometimes find out that a country is low
on foreign reserves well after the real exchange rate has fallen.
In these circumstances, the currency value will fall very far very
rapidly. This is what occurred during the 1994 economic crisis in
Mexico.
Steady process of inflation is not
considered devaluation, although if a currency has a high level
of inflation, its value will naturally fall against gold or foreign
currencies. Especially where a country deliberately prints money
a usual cause of hyperinflation to cover a persistent budget deficit
without borrowing, this may be considered devaluation.
In some cases, a country may
revalue its currency higher the opposite of devaluation in response
to positive economic conditions, to lower inflation, or to please
investors and trading partners. This would imply that existing currency
increased in value, as opposed to the case where a country issues
a new currency to replace an old currency that had declined excessively
in value.
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